Sustainability, foresight and contested futures: exploring visions and pathways in the transition to a hydrogen economy

This paper reports an innovative foresighting study which aimed to construct a small number of credible hydrogen futures and pathways to them, in order to inform the prospective transition to a sustainable hydrogen economy. Combining backcasting and multi-criteria appraisal the authors developed a novel participatory expert stakeholder-led methodology to build and appraise a set of visions, which sought to acknowledge the diversity of possible hydrogen futures and contested claims as to their sustainability. Drawing upon insights from recent work on systems innovation a set of transition scenarios where then developed exploring the dynamics and governance of the large-scale socio-technical changes that would be required for the emergence of the different visions. Whilst various aspects of this project have been reported in detail elsewhere, this paper seeks to: i) locate the work with respect to broader developments in the fields of foresight, expectations and socio-technical transitions to sustainability; ii) provide an overview and description of the methodology as a whole; and, iii) reflect on some key insights and challenges for research and practice. pìëí~áå~ÄáäáíóI=ÑçêÉëáÖÜí=~åÇ=ÅçåíÉëíÉÇ=ÑìíìêÉëW=ÉñéäçêáåÖ=îáëáçåë=~åÇ=é~íÜï~óë=áå=íÜÉ=íê~åëáíáçå=íç=~ ÜóÇêçÖÉå=ÉÅçåçãó= fåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=pìããÉê=^Å~ÇÉãó=çå=qÉÅÜåçäçÖó=píìÇáÉë=Ó=qê~åëÑçêãáåÖ=íÜÉ=båÉêÖó=póëíÉã= 1. Transition management, foresight and contested futures In recent years a growing international community of academics and opinion formers have argued for fundamental transformation in the socio-technological structure of human society to address the twin challenges of climate change and sustainable development. As Shove & Walker (2007) note, “for those concerned with sustainability, the idea of transition – of substantial change and movement from one state to another – has powerful normative attractions”. Indeed the concept of transitions and transitions management are central to the emerging discourse of reflexive governance of sustainable development. Drawing inspiration from ecology, systems and complexity science, transition theory seeks to develop an evolutionary perspective on societal change. With this perspective, addressing the inherently ‘wicked’ problem of sustainability becomes “...a learning-by-doing exercise: experimenting with partnerships, new institutions, new technologies and new regulations within...ecological limits”, informed by a co-evolutionary, non-linear, multilevel conception of systems innovation and socio-technological transition (Kemp & Loorbach, 2006). Transition management is by its very nature flexible and adaptive. However, processes of foresight, experimentation, evaluation and social learning, built upon stakeholder engagement and participation are central. Particular emphasis is placed on the development of shared problem definitions, normative visions (including long-term goals) and prospective transition pathways. “The vision, in combination with the images, the transition paths and experiments, forms the joint transition agenda...This is where coalitions come together around specific options or expectations” (Kemp & Loorbach, 2006: 114) In other words, transition management consciously seeks to mobilise and exploit the performative power of visions and expectations: facilitating the alignment of actors around common goals; defining research priorities; stimulating resources for R&D and deployment; reducing uncertainty in decision-making for technology developers; promoting political support for necessary institutional and regulatory change; etc. (Van Lente, 1993: Dierkes et al, 1996). Moreover, within the burgeoning transitions management literature a clear stream of work has emerged (of which this present study is a part) which has sought to provide a more theoretically grounded and informed set of foresight tools and methodologies (see for example: Elzen et al, 2004; Voss et al, 2006; Anderson et al 2005; Spath et al 2006; Mattias Weber, 2006). These approaches have built upon two bodies of literature: transitions theory and expectations dynamics. However, some authors have questioned the politics of transition management (and the role of foresight therein). In particular, authors have challenged the role of shared normative vision(s) (Berkhout et al, 2004), and argued that transition management fails to adequately address the operation of power by vested interests, and the deeply political and contested character of sustainable development (Shove & Walker, 2007). Stirling (2006) has argued for what he terms ‘precautionary foresight’. He suggests using a variety pìëí~áå~ÄáäáíóI=ÑçêÉëáÖÜí=~åÇ=ÅçåíÉëíÉÇ=ÑìíìêÉëW=ÉñéäçêáåÖ=îáëáçåë=~åÇ=é~íÜï~óë=áå=íÜÉ=íê~åëáíáçå=íç=~ ÜóÇêçÖÉå=ÉÅçåçãó= fåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=pìããÉê=^Å~ÇÉãó=çå=qÉÅÜåçäçÖó=píìÇáÉë=Ó=qê~åëÑçêãáåÖ=íÜÉ=båÉêÖó=póëíÉã= of ‘heuristic’ tools to facilitate more pluralistic forms of ‘iterative participatory goal formation’, and radical institutional means to achieve greater reflexivity over the role of power through ‘opening up’ previously closed processes of strategy development. This paper reports the development of an innovative methodology which has been designed to: i) ‘open up’ the foresighting process; ii) work with multiple and contested visions of the future and understandings of sustainability; iii) and explore the social and political choices framing alternative transition pathways. The work was undertaken as part of the UK Sustainable Hydrogen Energy Consortium (UKSHEC). Specifically the study aimed to construct a small number of credible hydrogen futures and pathways to them, in order to inform the prospective transition to a sustainable hydrogen economy. Combining backcasting and multi-criteria appraisal the authors developed a novel participatory expert stakeholder-led methodology to build and appraise a set of visions, which sought to acknowledge the diversity of possible hydrogen futures and contested claims as to their sustainability. Drawing upon insights from recent work on systems innovation a set of transition scenarios where then developed exploring the dynamics and governance of the large-scale socio-technical changes that would be required for the emergence of the different visions. Section 2 below provides a brief overview of expectations of the hydrogen economy and the hydrogen futures literature. Section 3 outlines provide an overview and description of the methodology as a whole. Section 4 briefly describes the UKSHEC Transition Scenarios. Section 5 draws together some key insights from the work for the future of hydrogen, whilst section 6 provides some reflections on the methodology and future challenges for research and practice. 2. Contested futures and the hydrogen economy At first sight the notion of a ‘hydrogen economy’ may appear to provide an unproblematic normative vision of a sustainable energy system. After all, everyone from George Bush to large sections of the green movement and the industrial giants of the global energy and auto industries have come out in favour of a hydrogen economy. However, upon closer inspection we find that there is not one guiding vision of a hydrogen economy but many. Reviewing the literature reveals diverse range of possible hydrogen futures for both transport and energy. These range from decentralised systems based upon the small-scale renewables, through to heavily centralised systems reliant on nuclear energy or fossil fuels with carbonsequestration (McDowall & Eames, 2006a). Indeed, like the concept of sustainable development itself, once we scratch the surface it becomes apparent that the notion of a hydrogen economy in fact encompasses multiple contested socio-technological futures, value judgements and problem framings (Eames et al, 2006). pìëí~áå~ÄáäáíóI=ÑçêÉëáÖÜí=~åÇ=ÅçåíÉëíÉÇ=ÑìíìêÉëW=ÉñéäçêáåÖ=îáëáçåë=~åÇ=é~íÜï~óë=áå=íÜÉ=íê~åëáíáçå=íç=~ ÜóÇêçÖÉå=ÉÅçåçãó= fåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=pìããÉê=^Å~ÇÉãó=çå=qÉÅÜåçäçÖó=píìÇáÉë=Ó=qê~åëÑçêãáåÖ=íÜÉ=båÉêÖó=póëíÉã= 3. The UKSHEC Hydrogen Futures Methodology An overview of the novel participatory foresight methodology developed for the UKSHEC hydrogen futures project is provided in figure 1 below. Essentially the research was structured around four main phases: i) scoping and literature review; ii) vision development; iii) multi-criteria sustainability appraisal; iv) transition pathways and scenarios development. Fig 1: Overview of UKSHEC hydrogen futures project (Source: Eames & McDowall, 2007) Phase 1: Scoping The initial scoping phase of the project comprised a detailed literature review (McDowall & Eames, 2006) and process of stakeholder identification and recruitment, including a small number of exploratory interviews. Stakeholders were identified by ‘mapping’ the key actors involved in hydrogen production, supply and end-use chains, and by reviewing relevant UK steering groups, partnerships and hydrogen networks. A ‘snowballing technique’ was also used with key informants to ensure broad participation from all relevant sectors, including academia, industry, government and civil society. Literature Review Stakeholder interviews Stakeholder Identification